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abdelfattah123
#21 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 03:48:08(UTC)
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Japan: Consumer Price Index
Description:
This data point, released monthly from Statistics Japan, measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. CPI is the most important inflation-related release. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation and inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates to contain inflation. Tokyo-area inflation data pertains to the current month, while the Nationwide figure pertains to the prior month, hence Tokyo CPI can be seen as more important.

In 2015, the Bank of Japan began releasing their own measure of core inflation. This is the primary measure the BoJ use to inform monetary policy. The BoJ release comes 5.5 hours after this release.

Summary:
The BOJ are watching inflation excluding food and energy in order to gauge the path of underlying inflation. If underlying inflation is rising then it is less likely that they will expand their current QQE program. Conversely, if underlying inflation is not rising, or worse, falling, then the BOJ may add to their program eventually. The target is for inflation to reach 2% by the end of 2016.

The BOJ's own measure of Core inflation remained at 1.1% y/y for March but is expected to decrease to 1.0% for April. Furthermore Tokyo and National Core CPI's are expected to decline to -0.4%, their lowest levels since 2013.

Expected Market Reaction:
A negative deviation would result in multi-year lows with expectations for both National and Tokyo readings already expected at 2013 levels and the BoJ's own measure expected to be the lowest recorded since its introduction, therefore a miss on expectations would likely result in increased calls for further BoJ easing, pressuring JPY. On the other hand a solid beat will likely diminish chances of the BOJ easing further at the next meeting.
abdelfattah123
#22 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 03:52:45(UTC)
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Japanese Natl CPI (Apr) Y/Y -0.30% vs. Exp. -0.40% (Prev. -0.10%)
Reaction details:

- No immediate reaction seen in USD/JPY, trades 109.71 (-5 pips) last.
abdelfattah123
#23 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 03:55:15(UTC)
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Japanese Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (Apr) Y/Y -0.30% vs. Exp. -0.40% (Prev. -0.30%)
abdelfattah123
#24 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 03:56:51(UTC)
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Japanese Tokyo CPI (May) Y/Y -0.50% vs. Exp. -0.50% (Prev. -0.40%)
abdelfattah123
#25 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 03:57:47(UTC)
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Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (May) Y/Y -0.50% vs. Exp. -0.40% (Prev. -0.30%)
abdelfattah123
#26 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 03:58:57(UTC)
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Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (May) Y/Y 0.50% vs. Exp. 0.60% (Prev. 0.60%)
abdelfattah123
#27 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 03:59:49(UTC)
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Japanese Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (Apr) Y/Y 0.70% vs. Exp. 0.70% (Prev. 0.70%)
abdelfattah123
#28 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 04:02:24(UTC)
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Taiwan seeks to restrict growth of government debt, according to Eco. Daily
abdelfattah123
#29 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 04:04:34(UTC)
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G-7 leaders say downside risk expanding for world economy, commits to stronger coordinated response to conditions in the economy
abdelfattah123
#30 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 04:05:42(UTC)
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Australia sells AUD 1bln 2.75% 2019 bonds, bid to cover 3.01 average yield 1.6207%
abdelfattah123
#31 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 04:07:17(UTC)
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PRE-MARKET CHINESE STOCK NEWS: Highlights include: Lenovo (0992 HK) reported FY revenue fell 3% Y/Y to USD 44.9bln
Lenovo (0992 HK)
- Co. reported FY revenue fell 3% Y/Y to USD 44.9bln and also suffered a FY net loss of USD 128mln vs. a profit of USD 829mln a year prior.
- Co. Q4 net USD 180mln vs. Exp. USD 184.9mln. (Xinhua/China Economic Net)

Steelmakers
- China’s top steel-making Hebei province has pledged reductions and targets 14.2mln ton capacity cuts this year. (Xinhua)

Other Stories
- China will streamline the approval process for investment projects to promote further private investment. (Xinhua)
- Alibaba executive vice-chairman Joseph Tsai expressed confidence in the firm’s accounting practices, which are being investigated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). (SCMP)
- PBoC Monetary Policy analysis team said that China will maintain a slightly loose policy to bolster the economy, which still faces downside pressure. (China Business News)
- The Ministry of Finance said that China’s debt is under control and there is space for additional government debt. (China Economic Net)
- China is to launch the China International Graphene Industry Union in September this year. (China Economic Net)
- G-7 agreed to combat China’s oversupply problem. (Newswires)
- PBoC expects slower China M2 growth in the months ahead. (Newswires)
- China’s regulator has asked for controlling shareholders of firms that have risen in value following M&A financing not to sell shares for 12-months. (Securities Times)
abdelfattah123
#32 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 04:09:06(UTC)
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USD/JPY and JPY crosses have strengthened in recent trade as positive risk-sentiment across Asia spurs outflows to safe-haven JPY with USD/JPY now testing the 110.00 level to the upseide
abdelfattah123
#33 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:05:32(UTC)
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JPY strengthens in recent trade with USD/JPY paring all its earlier gains following comments from PM Abe which were bearish on the global economy
abdelfattah123
#34 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:07:34(UTC)
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27th MAY 2016

Asian equities trade mostly higher, with Chinese bourses underperforming amid a fall in industrial profits growth
USD/JPY trends back towards 110.00 to the upside in an otherwise subdued session for FX
Highlights today include US GDP and University of Michigan sentiment, as well as comments from Fed's Yellen
ASIA

Asian equities ignored a subdued lead from Wall St to trade mostly higher, although China lagged following slower growth in industrial profits. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was underpinned on reports PM Abe could delay the sales tax hike as soon as next week while a continued decline in CPI data further added to calls for BoJ action. ASX 200 (+0.5%) was also upbeat led by defensive stocks and climbed above the 5400 level. Elsewhere, Chinese markets bucked the trend with the Shanghai Comp (-0.4%) and Hang Seng (-0.2%) both in negative territory following a slowdown in industrial profits growth. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded higher despite the increased risk-appetite in Japan, underpinned by the BoJ’s presence in the market for a total JPY 460bln of government debt including inflation-linked bonds.

Japanese PM Abe is set to announce a tax-hike delay on Wednesday. (Nikkei) Of note, Kyodo reported during European hours that Abe is likely to make an announcement in regards to the sales tax on Monday

Japanese Natl CPI (Apr) Y/Y -0.30% vs. Exp. -0.40% (Prev. -0.10%)
- Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (Apr) Y/Y -0.30% vs. Exp. -0.40% (Prev. -0.30%)
- Tokyo CPI (May) Y/Y -0.50% vs. Exp. -0.50% (Prev. -0.40%)
- Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (May) Y/Y 0.50% vs. Exp. 0.60% (Prev. 0.60%). (Newswires)

Chinese Industrial Profits (Apr) Y/Y 4.2% (Prev. 11.1%). (Newswires)

PBoC set the CNY mid-point at 6.5490 (Prev. midpoint 6.5552).
PBoC injected CNY 95bln via 7-day reverse repo for a net weekly injection of CNY 70bln vs. CNY 50bln net injection last week. (Newswires)

EUROPE

Barclays month-end estimates: - Pan Eur Agg +0.05 yrs-, Pan Euro Agg Trsy +0.03 yrs, Eur Agg, +0.06 yrs, Eur Agg Trsy +0.04 yrs

UK

Reports in UK press suggest that the EU are planning to create a European army, with the intention of keeping the plan a secret from British voters until the day after next month’s referendum. (The Times)

UK GfK Consumer Confidence (May) M/M -1 vs. Exp. -4 (Prev. -3). (Newswires)

Barclays month-end estimates: Stg Agg +0.00 yrs, Stg Agg Trsy -0.02 yrs

FX

In FX markets, the positive risk sentiment spurred outflows from safe haven JPY which saw USD/JPY attempt a reclaim of the 110.00 handle. Elsewhere, the majority of FX markets remained subdued ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech later today, with USD also range-bound heading into Memorial Day weekend while commodity-linked currencies were pressured by the declines across the commodity-complex with USD/CAD testing the 1.3000 level to the upside.

G-7 said nations should refrain from competitive devaluations, while they also added that downside risks are expanding for the world economy and committed to stronger coordinated responses to economic conditions. (Newswires)

Saudi Central Bank Governor Alkholifey stated that the country has the ability to protect the exchange rate and went on to say that they do not plan to alter the Riyal exchange policy and that the economy is doing well despite oil prices. (Newswires)

COMMODITIES

Oil prices continued to pull-back following its recent advances and having met resistance above the USD 50/bbl level. Gold (-0.2%) prices remained weak and are on course for its worst week since March amid increased Fed rate hike concerns, while copper and iron ore prices recovered from early losses amid improvement in risk appetite across Asia.

US

The US 10y ground higher throughout yesterday’s trade as uncertainty within equity markets and downside in oil markets helped to support fixed income products. Furthermore, a better than average USD 28bln 7y auction provided some additional upside to the complex with dealers left with the second lowest amount on record. At the pit close, T-notes settled at 129.28+, up 13+ ticks.

Fed's Powell (Voter, Neutral) stated that rate increase may be appropriate fairly soon and added that the pace of normalisation should be gradual. (Newswires)

Barclays month-end estimates: US Treasury +0.13 yrs
abdelfattah123
#35 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:09:14(UTC)
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Current Sentiment:
The Asia-Pacific session saw inflation data from Japan. Tokyo-area CPI Ex-Food & Energy for May printed at 0.5% y/y, below expectations and prior of 0.6%, and was flat for the m/m reading. Nationwide CPI Ex-Food & Energy for April printed at 0.7% y/y, in line with prior and expectations, and rose 0.3% m/m. The BoJ's measure of core inflation, which also excludes food and energy, dropped to 0.9% from a prior of 1.1% y/y and missing estimates of 1.0%. This increases chances of further BoJ easing in June. USDJPY remains in a 45-pip range on the session as yet another month passes in Japan where core inflation has failed to rise sufficiently.

The London session is light with the next major event coming during the NY session in the form of US GDP, which has the potential to move the dollar across the board.

*New updates to the fundamental section will be left in bold for 24 hours*

USD: Minutes from the April 26-27 meeting were hawkish and woke the market up to the chance of a hike in June; Fed Fund futures jumped from 12% to 33%. CPI for April came in close to estimates across the board with Core CPI at 2.1% y/y. NFP for April missed on the headline figure at 160k vs 202k expected. However, Average Hourly Earnings came in as expected at a solid 0.3% rise for the month, which bodes well for the inflation picture and prompted some upside in the USD post release.

EUR: Inflation data for April printed in line with expectations, pushing the Eurozone back into deflation. CPI y/y printed at -0.2% with Core CPI printing at 0.7%. Flash GDP for Q1 missed expectations at 0.5% q/q versus expectations of 0.6%, and at 1.5% y/y versus expectations of 1.6%.

GBP: Second Estimate GDP for Q1 was at 0.4% and 2.0% y/y. Average Weekly Earnings for March increased by 2.0%, above expectations of 1.7%, Claimant Count Change also beat expectations, decreasing by 2,400 vs an expected increase of 4,000. CPI data for April missed estimates across the board with CPI y/y declining to 0.3%, below expectations of remaining unchanged at 0.5%, core CPI y/y missed at 1.2% versus expectations of 1.4%.

AUD: The minutes from the May 3 meeting showed the RBA considered waiting for more data before cutting rates. The RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy cut inflation forecasts, cementing the chance of future rate cuts. RBA cut the OCR to a new low of 1.75% on May 3. The Bank had clearly signalled their intention to do so in the prior decision statements, if inflation moved lower. CPI for Q1 missed by a wide margin with Trimmed Mean CPI printing at 1.7% y/y, below expectation of 2.0%.

NZD: Inflation Expectations for 2 years out sit at 1.64%. The FSR showed concerns over rising house prices but failed to introduce any new macroprudential controls, which suggests the RBNZ will remain on hold in June. Q1 employment was mixed with the jobless rate rising to 5.7% but job growth smashing estimates at 1.2% q/q.

CAD: Core CPI for April rose by 2.2% y/y versus expectations of 2.0% and by 1.7% for headline CPI y/y in line with expectations. A neutral to weakly-bullish currency, with sentiment in lock-step with WTI.

JPY: Tokyo-area CPI Ex-Food & Energy for May printed at 0.5% y/y, below prior of 0.6%, and was flat for the m/m. Nationwide CPI Ex-Food & Energy for April printed at 0.7% y/y, in line with prior, and rose 0.3% m/m. The BoJ's measure of core inflation dropped to 0.9%. The BoJ kept policy unchanged at the April 28 meeting, which saw massive strength in yen across the board, given the market pricing for a potential announcement of further easing. The BoJ may ease further at the next meeting on June 16.

CHF: CPI beat estimates for April, printing at 0.3% m/m, above the 0.1% expected. Fundamentally a weak currency, highly correlated with moves in EUR.

Technicals:
We will be monitoring levels of support and resistance in unison with any impactful news and the underlying fundamentals in order to find a high probability trade. Support and resistance includes previous highs and lows (horizontal s/r), trendlines, moving averages, fibonacci retracements, daily pivot levels and round numbers. These levels of support and resistance are most effective when there are several of them converging at the same area (confluence).
abdelfattah123
#36 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:10:03(UTC)
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Not too much out of Asia other than industrial profits in China falling from the 11.1% levels on a yearly basis to 4.2%. This seems to have dragged on spot and cross JPY though Asia equities were relatively healthy after a dull session on Wall Street. Commodity currencies are faring a little better – limited upside in AUD and NZD, but no urgent interest to sell here as there is in CAD, despite Oil coming off better levels. EUR/USD remains heavy as long as we remain below 1.1250, but there is a clear bid tone to note, aided by that seen in EUR/GBP, as the impact of the Bremain positive polls of late seems to be fading as focus turns on the USD again – Fed chair Yellen speaking later today. Range bound markets anticipated through the day as a result, though we also have the second reading of the US Q1 GDP to negotiate at the start of North American trade.
abdelfattah123
#37 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:11:30(UTC)
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China's Safe state that Apr'16 international cargo and service trade income was at USD 186.8bln
abdelfattah123
#38 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:12:57(UTC)
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Option expiries of note for today's 1000am NY cut (1500BST)
EUR/USD: 1.1000(E1.23bln), 1.1055(369mln), 1.1100(531mln), 1.1150(1.23bln), 1.1200(588mln), 1.1250(576mln), 1.1300(2.81bln), 1.1345-50(492mln), 1.1400(816mln)

USD/JPY: 109.60($291mln), Y110.00(883mln), Y110.50(200mln), 110.65(290mln), 110.80-85(590mln), 111.65(1.22bln)

GBP/USD: $1.4600(Gbp554mln)

USD/CHF: 0.9725-30($370mln), 0.9830(200mln), 0.9900(300mln)

AUD/USD: 0.7100(A$206mln), 0.7200(213mln), 0.7220(360mln), 0.7250(581mln), 0.7270(536mln), 0.7290(228mln), 7300(491mln), 0.7400(237mln), 0.7500(625mln)

NZD/USD: 0.6550(NZ$497mln), 0.6700-05(232mln):

AUD/JPY: 80.10(225mln)

AUD/NZD: 1.0700(A$200mln)

USD/CAD: 1.2950($325mln), 1.3000(1.12bln), 1.3050(490mln), 1.3150(290mln), 1.3175(475mln), 1.3400(400mln)
abdelfattah123
#39 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:14:24(UTC)
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French Consumer Confidence (May) M/M 98 vs. Exp. 95 (Prev. 94)
abdelfattah123
#40 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:15:08(UTC)
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French Consumer Confidence (May) M/M 98 vs. Exp. 95 (Prev. 94)
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