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Live News and session Update
abdelfattah123
#41 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:16:25(UTC)
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DAILY BOND AUCTION PREVIEW: Today sees Italian and UK T-bill Auctions
AUCTION PREVIEW: Italian EUR 6bln 6 month T-Bill Auction

In terms of historical data the previous offering of this line drew a b/c of 1.62 and average yield -0.05%.

Bids are submitted by 1000BST and results are published shortly after.



AUCTION PREVIEW: GBP 4bln 1-,3-,6-Month T-Bill Auctions

The most recent 1-month T-Bill offering was covered 2.824 times and at an avg. yield of 0.3908%

The 3-month sale was last covered 5.126 times and at an avg. yield of 0.4435%

The 6-month sale was last covered 2.422 times and at an avg. yield of 0.4929%.

Bids are submitted by 1100BST and results are published shortly after.
abdelfattah123
#42 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:17:55(UTC)
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NOTICE: Due to the upcoming UK bank holiday and US Memorial Day holiday on Monday 30th May, the desk will be running a reduced service alongside the subsequent market closures. See below for further details
- On Sunday May 29th the Asia-Pacific service will open at its regular time of 2200BST/1600CDT with the European service also opening at its regular time of 0630BST/0030CDT given that European markets will be open for trade.

- The European service will run to 1630BST to cover the European cash equity close, upon which the desk will close. Note, there will be no US service thereafter for that session due to US market closures.

- The service will then re-open later that evening on May 30th at 2200BST for the beginning of the Asia-Pacific session with full coverage to resume thereafter on Tuesday May 31st.

UK

All UK products are closed

EUROPE

Regular close and trading

US

Floor Trade

All closed

Electronic Trade

Equity (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)

Interest Rate (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)

FX (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)

NYMEX (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)
abdelfattah123
#43 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 11:21:19(UTC)
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United States: Preliminary Gross Domestic Product
Description:
Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is the second estimate of GDP and is released quarterly from the US Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis. The print shows the annualised change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. Preliminary GDP is the second estimate of three GDP readings from the US. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advanced, Preliminary, and Final.

Summary:
With the possibility of a June hike by the Fed, tier one data from the US is hugely important and will play directly into moves in the dollar. The Fed have not made their decision yet, but provided the data remains decent and core inflation does not fall, a June hike is more than likely. This print for Q1 is expected to rise to 0.8%, up from 0.5% at the Advance reading. A beat will increase chances of a June hike while a miss will decrease chances.

Expected Market Reaction:
A deviation in either direction has the potential to cause a move in the USD. A beat will see a resumption of the dollar strength witnessed after the recent FOMC minutes. Conversely, a miss will see a sell-off in the greenback as the market scales back expectations of a June hike.
abdelfattah123
#44 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 20:19:46(UTC)
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NY Fed GDP estimate for Q2 2.2% from 1.7% on May 20th
abdelfattah123
#45 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 20:20:40(UTC)
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WEEKLY FX WRAP: Another USD push higher as EUR/USD carves out fresh lows ahead of 1.1100 despite Q1 US GDP revision. GBP relents. AUD and CAD lose momentum again
Into the weekend we saw the market continue to push the USD higher, hitting fresh lows in EUR/USD ahead of 1.1100 where we see some heavy bids soaking up the pressure. There was little to drive the move lower – if anything the slightly lower revision in Q1 US GDP and the miss on Michigan sentiment providing the perfect opportunity for some retracement, but the rejection of 1.1200 higher up guiding the intra-day market to the downside again. USD/JPY has been pushed back up towards 110.00 as a result, with the positive mood in equities helping to a degree, but the USD perspective the key driver today. GBP trade has been mixed, with Cable following the rest of the pack but EUR/GBP tentatively taking out resistance at .7640. In the commodity pairs, USD/CAD looks to have based out ahead of 1.2900, but has run into some near term support in the upper 1.3000’s. Oil prices remain well placed for another test on $50.0, so this will hold off any aggressive buying at current levels. AUD/USD is also on the back foot again, having run into good offers from .7240 on the high side. Along with the NZD, lower levels remain in focus, but achieving them is hard-fought. Fed chair Yellen set to speak after the London close at Harvard, but expectations on coverage of monetary policy light. Looking to next week we have a slow start with both the UK and UK off on holiday. At the other end of the week is US non farm payrolls, so plenty of USD to-and-fro likely. Thursday sees the Jun ECB meeting, but nothing new expected here. PMIs are the other notable data theme running through the week.
abdelfattah123
#46 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 20:21:44(UTC)
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Codelco Q1 sales USD 2.72bln, copper production rises 11% to 437k tonnes
abdelfattah123
#47 بتاريخ : 27 May 2016 20:23:09(UTC)
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NOTICE: Due to the upcoming UK bank holiday and US Memorial Day holiday on Monday 30th May, the desk will be running a reduced service alongside the subsequent market closures. See below for further details
- On Sunday May 29th the Asia-Pacific service will open at its regular time of 2200BST/1600CDT with the European service also opening at its regular time of 0630BST/0030CDT given that European markets will be open for trade.

- The European service will run to 1630BST to cover the European cash equity close, upon which the desk will close. Note, there will be no US service thereafter for that session due to US market closures.

- The service will then re-open later that evening on May 30th at 2200BST for the beginning of the Asia-Pacific session with full coverage to resume thereafter on Tuesday May 31st.

UK

All UK products are closed

EUROPE

Regular close and trading

US

Floor Trade

All closed

Electronic Trade

Equity (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)

Interest Rate (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)

FX (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)

NYMEX (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)
abdelfattah123
#48 بتاريخ : 30 May 2016 15:07:24(UTC)
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NOTICE: Due to the UK bank holiday and US Memorial Day holiday today, the desk will be running a reduced service alongside the subsequent market closures. See below for further details
- The European service will run to 1630BST to cover the European cash equity close, upon which the desk will close. Note, there will be no US service thereafter for that session due to US market closures.

- The service will then re-open later that evening on May 30th at 2200BST for the beginning of the Asia-Pacific session with full coverage to resume thereafter on Tuesday May 31st.

UK

All UK products are closed

EUROPE

Regular close and trading

US

Floor Trade

All closed

Electronic Trade

Equity (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)

Interest Rate (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)

FX (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)

NYMEX (Closed 1200CDT/1800BST, Re-opens 1700CDT/2300BST)
abdelfattah123
#49 بتاريخ : 30 May 2016 15:08:43(UTC)
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UPDATE: According to sources the security area is about to reopen at Cologne Airport
abdelfattah123
#50 بتاريخ : 30 May 2016 15:09:20(UTC)
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German CPI (May P) M/M 0.30% vs. Exp. 0.30% (Prev. -0.40%)
knightfx
#51 بتاريخ : 30 May 2016 15:09:26(UTC)
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German CPI (May P) Y/Y 0.10% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. -0.10%)

abdelfattah123
#52 بتاريخ : 30 May 2016 15:10:06(UTC)
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German CPI (May P) Y/Y 0.10% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. -0.10%)
abdelfattah123
#53 بتاريخ : 30 May 2016 15:44:47(UTC)
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GBP moving higher again in thin trade
In otherwise quiet holiday trade, we have seen some GBP buying going through, lifting the Cable rate back into the mid 1.4600’s with resistance higher up coming in from circa 1.4645-50 or so. The impact on EUR/GBP is to push the pair back towards .7600 again, but over recent sessions, good support noted under this figure level. More choppy flow anticipated as we head into June, where we still expect pre referendum nerves to tame poll based demand of late – much of which has been short covering interest.
abdelfattah123
#54 بتاريخ : 30 May 2016 15:46:11(UTC)
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Canadian Industrial Product Price (Apr) M/M -0.50% vs. Exp. 0.40% (Prev. -0.60%)
abdelfattah123
#55 بتاريخ : 30 May 2016 16:05:27(UTC)
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France EUR 5.985 bln vs. EUR 6.0bln 3-, 6-,12- Month T-Bill Auctions
- Sells EUR 3.299bln 3- Month T-Bill b/c 1.934 (Prev. 2.123) and at an average yield of -0.496% (Prev. -0.510%)

- Sells EUR 1.397bln 6- Month T-Bill b/c 2.456(Prev. 3.078) and at an average yield -0.486% (Prev. -0.503%)

- Sells EUR 1.289bln 12- Month T-Bill b/c 2.681 (Prev. 4.384) and at an average yield of -0.487% (Prev. -0.495%)
knightfx
#56 بتاريخ : 30 May 2016 17:11:38(UTC)
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USD/CAD has moved higher in thin trade, likely order driven but tipping 1.3070 again – still off some 20-25 ticks off the highs of the day.  The upturn from the low 1.2900’s last week has prompted fresh calls for an eventual retest of 1.3200, but Oil price are also looking well placed for fresh upside, so current CAD levels are very much in the balance.  Tuesday’s return of London markets will determine the take on Fed chair Yellen’s comments from late Friday, though we have to go with the bullish USD theme which looks set to continue through to the Jun FOMC unless payrolls on Friday throw a spanner in the works.  

 
knightfx
#57 بتاريخ : 03 June 2016 17:31:45(UTC)
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US Change in Private Payrolls (May) M/M 25K vs. Exp. 150K (Prev. 171K)

- US Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (May) M/M -10K vs. Exp. -2K (Prev. 4K)

Reaction details:

- In an immediate reaction to the headline coming in significantly below expected, US 10y T-note Sep'16 futures rose 16 ticks from 130.01 to 130.17 and the E-mini S&P Jul'16 futures fell 9.75 points from 2104.75 to 2095.00.

- In currency markets the USD also saw weakness, with EUR/USD rising 77 pips from 1.1160 to 1.1237.

- Spot gold also rose USD 22.68 from USD 1213.16/oz to USD 1235.84/oz.

 

abdelfattah123
#58 بتاريخ : 06 June 2016 14:20:23(UTC)
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DAILY US OPENING NEWS: European equities trade modestly higher as participants await direction from the US in the wake of Friday’s NFP release and ahead of Yellen’s upcoming speech
European equities trade modestly higher as participants await direction from the US in the wake of Friday’s NFP release and ahead of Yellen’s upcoming speech
Despite recovering throughout the European session, GBP was dealt a blow overnight as the latest batch of polls lean in favour of the leave camp
The rest of the session is light in terms of data, and will see all focus on the much anticipated speech from Fed’s Yellen this afternoon, which will garner even more attention in the wake of Friday’s jobs release
ASIA

Asia traded mixed as the region digested Friday’s dismal NFP data and its implications for Fed policy. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) significantly underperformed as the aforementioned data saw JPY strengthen firmly against the USD with USD/JPY briefly below 107.00. Conversely, material names elevated the ASX 200 (+0.8%) into positive territory as the softer greenback underpinned commodity prices. Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.2%) saw choppy trade with sentiment clouded following a lacklustre CNY 40bln liquidity injection, although downside across the Asia region was stemmed as the poor jobs data also dampened prospects of a sooner Fed hike. 10yr JGBs traded in positive territory as the lack of risk-appetite in Japanese equities fuels safe haven inflows benefiting bond prices.

PBoC set the CNY mid-point at 6.5497 (Prev. mid-point 6.5793) and PBoC injected CNY 40bln with 7-day reverse repos.

PBoC Assistant Governor Yong stated that China has relatively ample space for monetary policy moves and can make policy adjustments using tools including interest rates and RRR. (Xinhua)

CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS/COMMENTARY

Fed’s Mester (Voter, Hawk) stated that Friday’s weak jobs number has not fundamentally changed her view and stated that they cannot read too much into one number. Mester also added that she remains confident growth is picking up and that risks of waiting too long could result in aggressive hikes later on. (Newswires)

Fed watcher Hilsenrath stated that some officials could prefer to wait until the September meeting to consider hiking rates and that officials would want to observe if the economy remains on track prior to taking action. (WSJ)

UK REFERENDUM POLLS

Opinium Brexit poll showed 43% are in favour of leaving the EU and 40% would vote to remain. (Express)

ITV Brexit poll showed 45% are in favour of leaving the EU and 41% would vote to remain. (Newswires)

TNS Brexit poll showed 43% are in favour of leaving the EU and 41% would vote to remain. (Newswires)

A survey of Daily Telegraph subscribers showed that 69% are in favour of leaving the EU. (Daily Telegraph)

UK Trade Unions urge on 6mln members to oppose a Brexit. (Guardian)

EQUITIES/ FIXED INCOME

European equities have also benefitted in the wake of Friday’s eventful NFP release, with indices spending most of the session higher, although coming off best levels as we move into mid-morning (Euro Stoxx: +0.1%), with material and energy names among the best performers. As such, FTSE is the best performing index, led higher by Anglo American, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

Fixed income markets have sustained the upside seen last week, with Bunds continuing to trade near all-time highs, albeit relatively contained on the day given the lack of European supply or data and with net supply relatively steady this week.

FX

A cautious morning of USD trade as the market is now looking to the Janet Yellen’s speech in Philadelphia today , with high volatility anticipated in her reaction to the sharply lower than expected headline jobs number from Friday. The USD lows seen from the end of last week have yet to be extended in this respect, though we are still in touch with these levels in all pairs other than USD/JPY, where an improved risk tone has lifted the pair through 107.00 from the 106.35 lows. GBP had another rough ride in Asia after 3 separate EU polls all showed the Brexit vote in the lead, with the Cable rate hit below 1.4400 again , though we are since back above the figure. EUR/GBP tipped .7900, but early May highs ahead of .7950 have help contain the rally here. In the commodity currencies, USD/CAD found strong support ahead of 1.2900 and continues to do so today, with Oil prices offering little lead. NZD is pulling back a little after some outperformance seen last week, with the RBNZ meeting later this week. RBA in the overnight session ahead, but a ‘no change’ cemented after last week’s strong growth data so AUD buoyant for now.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent have been strengthening after a weaker USD has bolstered the commodities complex. WTI is currently up 0.7% at around USD 49.14bbl. Gold prices remained near Friday’s highs amid the dampened Fed rate hike expectations while copper and iron ore were also boosted alongside the broad-based gains in the commodities-complex. Overnight and this morning base metals are up an average of one percent, with a 1.8% rise in nickel. Aluminium is again the worst performer with a 0.3% gain but Volume has been strong with 7,336 lots traded.

Goldman Sachs revised down their NatGas forecast for Q3 –Q4 2016 and revise up for Q1 –Q2 2017. (Newswires)
abdelfattah123
#59 بتاريخ : 06 June 2016 14:21:06(UTC)
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Netherlands sell EUR 2.35bln vs. Exp. EUR 4bln 3-,6-Month T-Bill Auctions
- Sells EUR 1.1bln 3- Month T-Bill b/c 2.39 (Prev. 2.25 times) and at an average yield of -0.525% (Prev. -0.535%)

-Sells EUR 1.25bln 6- Month T-Bill b/c 2.28 (Prev.2.33 times) and at an average yield of -0.526% (Prev. -0.528%)
abdelfattah123
#60 بتاريخ : 06 June 2016 14:21:43(UTC)
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ICM poll shows 48% (+1%) to leave 43% (-1%) to remain
Analysis details:

- Previous polls:

Opinium Brexit poll showed 43% are in favour of leaving the EU and 40% would vote to remain. (Express)

ITV Brexit poll showed 45% are in favour of leaving the EU and 41% would vote to remain. (Newswires)

TNS Brexit poll showed 43% are in favour of leaving the EU and 41% would vote to remain. (Newswires)

A survey of Daily Telegraph subscribers showed that 69% are in favour of leaving the EU. (Daily Telegraph)

UK Trade Unions urge on 6mln members to oppose a Brexit. (Guardian)

Reaction details:

- In an immediate reaction GBP/USD fell 60 pips from 1.4442 to 1.4382
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