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Live News and session Update
abdelfattah123
#101 بتاريخ : 13 June 2016 14:06:41(UTC)
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USD/JPY holding off 105.51 from early April
USD/JPY has tested lower levels again, having based out temporarily ahead the 105.51 low from early April. 105.74 was recorded in earlier trade, but we are currently struggling ahead of 106.00 to suggest more downside tests may be on the cards ahead. All hangs on how Wall Street performs, but the S&P futures are basing out a little in line with the Dax. Looking further into the week, the BoJ meeting carriers the usual risk of potential accommodative action, but most if not all discounting the prospect of further negative rates. 106.20-25 proving near term resistance from here, but 107.00-30 much stronger higher up.
abdelfattah123
#102 بتاريخ : 13 June 2016 14:10:24(UTC)
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New York Session Forecast
Current Sentiment:
Markets opened with a risk-averse tone as the UK referendum draws near and we enter a week full of central bank risk events. Asian bourses were down and European counterparts have followed suit, albeit to a lesser degree. The yen appreciated through much of Asian trade but has since consolidated during London hours. WTI is down over $3 from Thursday's highs; this has pressured commodity currencies. Industrial Production from China slightly beat estimates at 6% y/y and Retail Sales was in line at 10% y/y.

Sterling remains under pressure after Friday's poll showing a lead to the "leave" camp. GBPJPY is down 500 pips from Friday's high. For now, Cable has bounced just above 1.41 as we await the next Brexit poll.

There was no notable data during the London session and the NY session is expected to be equally light.

*New updates to the fundamental section will be left in bold for 24 hours*

USD: NFP for May missed estimates by a wide margin, printing 38k vs 164k expected. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.7% and Average Hourly Earnings matched expectations at 0.2% m/m. Core PCE for April matched estimates at 0.2% m/m and 1.6% y/y. Second Estimate GDP for Q1 printed at 0.8%, revised up from the First Estimate of 0.5%. Minutes from the April 26-27 meeting were hawkish and woke the market up to the chance of a hike in June.

EUR: Flash Core CPI for May printed at 0.8% y/y. Flash GDP for Q1 missed expectations at 0.5% q/q versus expectations of 0.6%, and at 1.5% y/y versus expectations of 1.6%.

GBP: Second Estimate GDP for Q1 was at 0.4% and 2.0% y/y. Average Weekly Earnings for March increased by 2.0%, above expectations of 1.7%, Claimant Count Change also beat expectations, decreasing by 2,400 vs an expected increase of 4,000. CPI data for April missed estimates across the board with CPI y/y declining to 0.3%, below expectations of remaining unchanged at 0.5%, core CPI y/y missed at 1.2% versus expectations of 1.4%.

AUD: The RBA kept rates on hold at the June 7 meeting as was expected, but failed to reference future easing, which supported the AUD. GDP for Q1 printed at 1.1% q/q, above 0.8% expected and 3.1% y/y, above 2.8% expected. The minutes from the May 3 meeting showed the RBA considered waiting for more data before cutting rates.

NZD: RBNZ left rates on hold at 2.25% on June 9 as expected. The statement was less dovish and the Kiwi rallied. Inflation Expectations for 2 years out sit at 1.64%. The FSR showed concerns over rising house prices but failed to introduce any new macroprudential controls. Q1 employment was mixed with the jobless rate rising to 5.7% but job growth smashing estimates at 1.2% q/q.

CAD: Jobs sector for May showed a drop in the UR to 6.9% and gains of 13,800. GDP for Q1 printed at 0.6% q/q and 2.4% annualised, below expectations. Core CPI for April rose by 2.2% y/y versus expectations of 2.0% and by 1.7% for headline CPI y/y in line with expectations. A neutral to weakly-bullish currency, with sentiment in lock-step with WTI.

JPY: Final GDP for Q1 was revised up to 0.5% q/q and 1.9% annualised. Tokyo-area CPI Ex-Food & Energy for May printed at 0.5% y/y, below prior of 0.6%, and was flat for the m/m. Nationwide CPI Ex-Food & Energy for April printed at 0.7% y/y, in line with prior, and rose 0.3% m/m. The BoJ's measure of core inflation dropped to 0.9%.

CHF: CPI beat estimates for April, printing at 0.3% m/m, above the 0.1% expected. Fundamentally a weak currency, highly correlated with moves in EUR.

Technicals:
We will be monitoring levels of support and resistance in unison with any impactful news and the underlying fundamentals in order to find a high probability trade. Support and resistance includes previous highs and lows (horizontal s/r), trendlines, moving averages, fibonacci retracements, daily pivot levels and round numbers. These levels of support and resistance are most effective when there are several of them converging at the same area (confluence).
abdelfattah123
#103 بتاريخ : 13 June 2016 14:11:02(UTC)
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Notable metals from the Asian and European sessions...
Risk off sentiment across Asian and European trade has filtered into strength in safer assets, with gold prices residing around sessions highs. This comes amid global uncertainty as Brexit fears rise after the latest EU referendum polls leaned towards the leave camp, couple with rather soft data from China, subsequently stoking growth concerns.

Rio Tinto is eyeing a USD 6bln possible copper deal in Mongolia. (Newswires)

SPDR Gold Trust Holdings rose 0.74% to 893.92 metric tons. (Newswires)
abdelfattah123
#104 بتاريخ : 13 June 2016 14:15:19(UTC)
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United Kingdom: Consumer Price Index
Description:
The Consumer Price Index is released monthly from the Office for National Statistics and measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. CPI is the most important price-related release because it is the key measure the central bank uses to assess inflation. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because each central bank has a target inflation range which they attempt to maintain, primarily by adjusting interest rates. A change in interest rates means a change in the yield an investor receives by investing in that currency.

Summary:
The pound continues to be driven by Brexit polls with the latest poll showing a lead to the 'leave' camp and pressuring the currency. In light of the proximity to the referendum, economic data will have less impact on the pound and will move the currency in a sustained manner only if any data deviation matches up with sentiment driven from the latest polls.

Expected Market Reaction:
Any polls that come out in the 24 hours preceding this data point will likely have more effect on sterling than inflation data itself.
abdelfattah123
#105 بتاريخ : 14 June 2016 12:01:18(UTC)
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GBP ignores UK inflation read; EUR/GBP capped ahead of .8000 pre referendum?
Minimal reaction in GBP from the UK inflation read, where the both the headline and core prints come in slightly below expectations, though y-o-y headline is unchanged over May. Cable still holding above the lows from yesterday and edging back above 1.4150 in the meantime. EUR/GBP – as already mentioned – looks well offered ahead of .8000 - and in the midst of the pre leave voting polls, looks to be a significant development, potentially defining a cap into the referendum next week.
abdelfattah123
#106 بتاريخ : 14 June 2016 12:01:55(UTC)
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Spain sells EUR 5bln vs. Exp. EUR 5bln 6 & 12 month T-bills
- Sell EUR 921mln 6 month T-bill b/c 2.3 (Prev. 7.59) and an average yield of -0.145% (Prev -0.264%)

- Sell EUR 4.1bln 12 month T-bill b/c 1.38 (Prev. 2) and an average yield of -0.078% (Prev -0.154%)
abdelfattah123
#107 بتاريخ : 14 June 2016 12:02:50(UTC)
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Risk off mood continues as AUD, CAD pressed; JPY still well bid
The risk off mood is building up a head of steam again, with USD/JPY and AUD/USD pushing the lows, while weakness in the energy market is pushing USD/CAD through 1.2850 again in the meantime. Going against this is a softer EUR/USD tone, which traditionally has a negative correlation with risk, but as we have alluded to previously, cross rate sales – EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY notably – are the likely drivers of trade here. Cable is back in the low 1.4100’s again, and we see little respite here with a move below the 1.4116 lows from yesterday now very much on the cards.
abdelfattah123
#108 بتاريخ : 14 June 2016 12:03:36(UTC)
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EU Employment (Q1) Y/Y 1.40% (Prev. 1.20%)
abdelfattah123
#109 بتاريخ : 14 June 2016 12:04:09(UTC)
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EU Employment (Q1) Q/Q 0.30% (Prev. 0.30%)
abdelfattah123
#110 بتاريخ : 14 June 2016 12:04:44(UTC)
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EU Industrial Production WDA (Apr) Y/Y 2.00% (Prev. 0.20%)
abdelfattah123
#111 بتاريخ : 14 June 2016 12:05:16(UTC)
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EU Industrial Production SA (Apr) M/M 1.10% (Prev. -0.80%)
abdelfattah123
#112 بتاريخ : 14 June 2016 12:06:05(UTC)
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ASIA-PAC SERVICE HAS NOW FINISHED, PLEASE REVERT BACK TO YOUR ORIGINAL CHANNEL FOR COVERAGE ON THE UK & EUROPEAN SESSION
abdelfattah123
#113 بتاريخ : 14 June 2016 12:06:58(UTC)
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United States: Retail Sales
Description:
Released monthly by the US Census Bureau, this release shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. This is a primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. When consumption demand increases, not only does it show that people have incomes and businesses have revenues, but it also puts upwards pressure on inflation. The Core figure, also known as the Control Group, excludes automobiles, fuel and building supplies. The Control Group is crucial because it represents the same selection of industry sales that are used to prepare estimates for the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

Summary:
The latest tier-one data for the USD was NFP which missed estimates and caused strong negative sentiment on the USD. Current sentiment on USD is now more neutral. Retail Sales is important for the Fed's rate hike timing, however given the upcoming Brexit referendum it appears that July will be the most likely timing for a Fed rate hike.

Expected Market Reaction:
Given this data comes only one day prior to the FOMC statement, the market is likely to refrain somewhat from huge participation, unless we see a significant deviation. The Control Figure is expected at 0.3% for the month of May.
abdelfattah123
#114 بتاريخ : 16 June 2016 19:02:33(UTC)
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US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun) M/M 60 vs. Exp. 59 (Prev. 58)
abdelfattah123
#115 بتاريخ : 16 June 2016 19:03:45(UTC)
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Block trade update from the CME: 30k Oct 95/96 call spreads at 1.25
abdelfattah123
#116 بتاريخ : 16 June 2016 19:04:50(UTC)
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Few could have anticipated such a strong USD move the day after FOMC, but this is what has materialised, largely through Cable and EUR/USD sales, which have been largely Brexit risk related, with risk off sentiment all round impacting the likes of AUD, CAD and NZD also. We may be reaching saturation point given the extent of the moves seen, but into the North American session, we can expect to see these extremes stretched a little further. Nevertheless, the USD index is coming up against some strong resistance levels – 95.60-95 providing the congestion zone from late May.
abdelfattah123
#117 بتاريخ : 16 June 2016 19:05:57(UTC)
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US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (10-Jun) W/W 69 vs. Exp. 65 (Prev. 65)
Reaction details:

- Despite volatility shortly after the release NatGas futures came back to pre-announced levels
abdelfattah123
#118 بتاريخ : 16 June 2016 19:06:58(UTC)
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USD/JPY testing lower again, eyes earlier lows ahead of 103.50
USD/JPY is heading lower against the general USD theme, but looking at Wall Street, it is not hard to see why as the S&P index is currently down 17pts. Earlier lows ahead of 103.50 likely to come under attack also, especially if we see some temperance in the USD index – EUR/USD hitting 1.1133 and Cable to 1.4035 respectively. AUD/USD is now below .7300 while USD/CAD is running into resistance ahead of 1.3100. Time for attention to turn to the JPY pairs.
abdelfattah123
#119 بتاريخ : 16 June 2016 19:08:14(UTC)
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TOMORROWS CALENDAR IS AVAILABLE IN THE RESEARCH SECTION: US Housing starts, Building permits, Canadian CPI as well as comments from ECB's Draghi, Constancio and Couere
Tomorrows Calendar gives a look ahead to next week's key economic data, central bank speakers, government bond auctions, expires and holidays for the G7 and beyond. If you would like to upgrade your account to receive access to this report please contact us at admin@ransquawk.com
abdelfattah123
#120 بتاريخ : 16 June 2016 19:09:25(UTC)
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The USD index continues to extend upon gains and GBP/USD has been been pressured down towards 1.40, USD strength has also weighed upon the commodities complex, with WTI below 47, which has dragged down stock indices
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